Where next for Brexit?

James Evans
5 min readAug 13, 2019
Image Source: Yale

Irrespective of whether you voted to leave or remain in the 2016 referendum, the one thing that I think everyone can agree on is that the current Brexit situation is embarrassing for the whole country and that the process needs to come to a swift conclusion one way or another.

With Boris Johnson installed as the Prime Minister for a couple of weeks and with MPs on leave for their summer vacation I thought that it was an interesting time to take stock of the current Brexit situation and to hypothesize how events may play out over the coming weeks and months.

No Deal with Europe

The European Union have stated multiple times that they are not open to re-negotiating the withdrawal agreement or agreeing to any of Boris Johnson's demands including the removal the backstop on the Irish boarder. Even if the new Prime Minister was able to re-negotiate a deal with the European Union it is highly unlikely that he would be able to get parliament to agree to it, as Theresa May discovered to her cost.

No Deal Brexit Rejected

With a deal off the table the alternative is to leave the European Union without a deal on the 31st October 2019. However, Parliament have blocked moves to leave without a deal on several occasions previously, so this is also unlikely to be a successful option.

The Prime Minister could take the exceptional step of proroguing Parliament, to put it simply closing Parliament to prevent PMs from blocking a no deal exit. However, this would be be a extraordinary move in UK politics. But extraordinary times call for extraordinary actions.

Vote of No Confidence

If the UK is unable to leave the European Union with or without a deal on the 31st October 2019 the Prime Minister will need to ask the Europe Union for another extension to Article 50. With the Conservative government led by Boris Johnson unable to deliver on the commitment to take the UK out of the European Union, I expect that Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour party will call a vote of no confidence in the government in early November.

Calling a General Election

If the Conservative government loses the vote of no confidence, which would be highly probably at that point, the outcome is likely…

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James Evans

Singapore based writer, snowboarder, gym goer, digital artist and aspiring racing driver